What are the chances Chad Ochocinco can rejuvenate his career and blow up the way Randy Moss did when he joined the Patriots in 2007? There are plenty of similarities between the two players.
Moss was 30 years old when he joined the Patriots, Ochocinco is 32. Moss joined the Pats for his 10th pro season; this will be Ochocinco’s 11th. Prior to coming to New England, Moss had five Pro-Bowl appearances, Ochoicinco had six. Moss was coming off of an uninspired 553 yard, three TD year for the dysfunctional Raiders. Ochocinco is coming off of an 831 yard, four TD season for a currently dysfunctional Bengals team.
Similar to Moss, the thing that made him successful early in his career was his pure speed. While Ochocinco probably never had the same straight line speed as Moss, you have to wonder if his explosion is gone.
In 2007 he had 27 receptions of 20+ yards. In the three years since, he’s had 26. In 2007 alone he had four receptions of over 40+ yards. In the three years since, he’s had a total of four. And he just looked like a different, less productive player. The quarterback play and overall talent on offense both affected Ochocinco that way it did with Moss on the Raiders. Excluding his rookie year, the last three years have been the three lowest reception totals of Ochocinco’s career. With no one to get him the ball consistently and the lack of a legit #2 WR to take away some defensive pressure, his numbers have taken a hit; if he can’t get the ball, he can’t put up numbers.
Ochocinco is a better route runner than Moss, which is maybe as valuable as any attribute in the Patriots passing game. Do I think he’ll put up crazy Moss numbers? No, but the receptions will increase and he can at least match his 2007 or 2009 production- a 1,200 yard, 10 TD season is what you can expect.
Most important from a fantasy perspective, this makes Wes Welker as valuable as he was prior to the knee injury, meaning he could be the real value fantasy wise.