Every year a player emerges and produces at a fantasy level 10-20 spots higher than where he was forecasted prior to the season. And you knew he was going to do it, but you didn’t pull the trigger. You feel like a dummy because you let pre-draft rankings (which are essentially the same from site to site), ADP and the general overall consensus drive your draft selections.
But in every league, there’s always that one dude who pays no attention to these things, while you’ve been pouring over data like Val Kilmer in Real Genius. That dude had the foresight to draft Ahmad Bradshaw or Jamaal Charles a full two to three rounds earlier last season because he “had a feeling”. But you avoided your feelings (and why would you have those anyway- you’re a man) and went with the safety of popular opinion. Don’t let it happen again this year.
The first player that comes to mind for me in this category is Peyton Hillis. In perusing the internet, several reputable sites have him below names like Jahvid Best, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene or Ahmad Bradshaw. For 13 games he was the most consistent RB in fantasy last season; remember? Absolute beast. So what has changed heading in to 2011?
Another two are Reggie Wayne and DeSean Jackson- How are either of these guys ranked below Vincent Jackson or Miles Austin? Or even Hakeem Nicks? Wayne is coming off a career high in catches, and the second highest yardage total of his career. Oh, and he has maybe the greatest QB ever throwing him the ball. Jackson is possibly the most electric WR in the game.
It’s your fantasy season and your team, so do what you want. Because there is no worse feeling than going against your instinct on draft day and paying for it all season. Especially when the guys who were hot last year start off 2011 the same way.